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Showing posts from January, 2009

Failure is not an Option

Note: This feature length story by Chris McMahon originally appeared in the February 2009 issue of Futures Magazine. Link to original @ Futures Magazine With the global equity and commodity markets in turmoil, U.S. government securities have offered a safe haven for capital, drawing in more and more domestic and non-U.S. buyers, who have pushed prices for Treasury bills, notes and bonds to all-time highs and their yields to all-time lows. It's an indication of just how panic stricken the markets have been that yields on some short-term Treasuries have gone negative, meaning that buyers are locking in an assured loss rather than facing the uncertainty of other markets. "In a panic market, the flight to quality is fierce," says independent floor broker and trader Robert J. Griffin. "Companies who have cash balances and are afraid to keep it in a bank buy T-bills for 0% [yield] just because they want that money back."

2009 Interest Rate Outlook: Less than Zero?

Note: This feature length cover story by Chris McMahon originally appeared in the January 2009 issue of Futures Magazine. Link to original @ Futures Magazine Interest Rate Outlook: Less than Zero? Few would argue the fact that 2008 has been a historic year. The subprime lending crisis has lead to the edge of a global recession. Equity markets across the world have been slashed, erasing nearly a decade of gains, commodity markets have plunged and despite heroic, though occasionally comic and frequently tragic, attempts at intervention, credit markets have frozen. In the third quarter, U.S. gross domestic product was -0.5%, worse than the projected -0.3%, and unemployment levels continued to rise. As the margin calls roll in and the global deleveraging continues, investors and traders around the world are seeking a safe place to stem the bleeding and catch their breath: U.S. Treasuries. Demand has pushed bond prices to all-time highs, which of course has cut their yields